Real hope and real change

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports was generally believed to have been the most accurate pollster in predicting the outcome of the presidential election between John McCain and Barack Obama. Assuming Rasmussen maintains that accuracy this election season, Mitt Romney will be the next president.

By Chris Ingram

The Tampa Tribune

Published Saturday, October 13, 2012

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports was generally believed to have been the most accurate pollster in predicting the outcome of the presidential election between John McCain and Barack Obama. Assuming Rasmussen maintains that accuracy this election season, Mitt Romney will be the next president.

As of Wednesday, Rasmussen has Romney beating Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, with 4 percent undecided, and 1 percent preferring another candidate. Of course, that is a national poll result, and it is meaningless since we elect the president through the Electoral College in what amounts to 50 state elections.

Recognizing this, Rasmussen conducts individual state polls and then aggregates the 11 crucial swing states (of which Florida is one) to come up with a swing state average that currently has Romney up by 2 percent (49 to 47 percent). It is in these swing states where the election will be decided.

For Republicans, Romney’s change of fortune after the first presidential debate should Continue reading “Real hope and real change”

Romney’s ticket won’t include baggage, er, Rubio

Despite having enough baggage to make him look like a suitcase manufacturer, Marco Rubio remains the favorite of pundits trying to figure out whom Mitt Romney will pick to be his running mate.

By Chris Ingram

The Tampa Tribune

Published Sunday, June 3, 2012

Despite having enough baggage to make him look like a suitcase manufacturer, Marco Rubio remains the favorite of pundits trying to figure out whom Mitt Romney will pick to be his running mate.

Before explaining why I don’t think Rubio will be on the ticket, it is important to understand the dynamics of this campaign and Romney in particular.

The 2012 race for the White House is different from 2008 in many ways. Foremost, people know who Barack Obama is. “Hope and change” was an effective, poll-tested slogan that has proven to mean little if you’re an Obama supporter; and if you’re an Obama critic, it means you keep hoping, and the only change you have is in your pocket.

Obama has proven that Continue reading “Romney’s ticket won’t include baggage, er, Rubio”